Perspective in a Time of Global Uncertainty

Dear Clients, Partners, and Friends,

As we begin 2026, we do so against a backdrop of meaningful geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty. The escalation of the Iran conflict in the Middle East has quickly become the defining macro event of the year. This is not simply another policy debate or trade dispute—it is a real and evolving conflict with direct implications for global energy markets, inflation, and financial conditions.

The impact has been both immediate and significant. Disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows—have driven sharp increases in energy prices and introduced a new layer of uncertainty across global markets.  Oil price volatility has translated quickly into shifting inflation expectations, higher bond yields, and increased pressure on central bank policy decisions.

Financial markets responded accordingly. The first quarter was marked by sharp drawdowns, elevated volatility, and rapid sector rotation as investors recalibrated risk. Major indices entered correction territory during the height of the uncertainty, driven largely by the surge in oil prices and concerns about inflation and economic slowdown.  At the same time, the spike in volatility—along with meaningful moves across currencies, commodities, and rates—underscored just how interconnected today’s global economy has become.

And yet, despite the seriousness of these developments, markets have demonstrated a degree of resilience that is both notable and instructive.

Periods of geopolitical stress often produce sharp, headline-driven reactions. But history—and increasingly, current experience—suggests that markets are capable of absorbing these shocks, recalibrating, and ultimately refocusing on underlying fundamentals. Even within the first quarter, we saw evidence of this dynamic: following initial dislocations, markets began to stabilize and, in some cases, recover as expectations around the duration and scope of the conflict evolved.

That resilience, however, should be interpreted with discipline. The duration of the conflict remains the most important variable. A prolonged disruption to energy supply would continue to pressure inflation, constrain economic growth, and influence monetary policy decisions in meaningful ways.

Market Outlook: Positioning for What Comes Next

In this quarter’s newsletter, John Fidler, our Chief Investment Officer, provides a more detailed perspective on how these dynamics—and other structural forces—are shaping the investment landscape for 2026.

Our outlook highlights a market environment defined by both near-term uncertainty and longer-term opportunity. While geopolitical developments may continue to drive volatility, underlying drivers such as corporate earnings strength, capital investment—particularly in artificial intelligence and infrastructure—and evolving global leadership trends remain firmly in place.

Our perspective reinforces an important point: markets do not move on headlines alone—they move on how those headlines translate into economic reality. Understanding that distinction will be critical as we move through the year.

Planning in an Uncertain Environment

Periods of uncertainty also underscore the importance of thoughtful, proactive planning.

In this issue, Maria Tipton, JD, addresses the estate planning opportunities created by recent legislative clarity. With elevated federal estate tax exemptions now more clearly defined, families have a meaningful window to evaluate gifting strategies, trust structures, and long-term wealth transfer plans. Even in uncertain times, these structural decisions remain among the most impactful.

Jason Hamilton, CFP®, contributes our financial planning perspective, focusing on practical strategies to navigate changing conditions. Whether addressing tax efficiency, retirement income stability, or risk management, his message is consistent: financial plans should evolve as conditions change, but they should never be driven by short-term fear.

Advisor Spotlight: Experience and Perspective

This quarter’s Advisor Spotlight highlights two professionals who exemplify the value of steady, experienced guidance.

Lynn Land, from our Retirement Plan Services group, has spent her career helping organizations and individuals prepare for retirement with clarity and confidence. Her work reflects a deep understanding of both the technical and human aspects of long-term planning.

We also feature Jason Hamilton, CFP®, whose leadership in financial planning continues to support clients through increasingly complex decisions. His ability to translate uncertainty into actionable guidance is especially valuable in moments like these.

Together, they represent the strength of our broader team: professionals committed to thoughtful advice, careful listening, and long-term partnership.

Moving Forward with Discipline and Perspective

The events of this quarter are a reminder that uncertainty is an inherent part of investing and planning. Geopolitical risks, economic shifts, and market volatility will continue to emerge—often unexpectedly.

What matters most is not predicting these events, but preparing for them.

At Stock Yards Wealth Management & Trust, our focus remains on helping you navigate complexity with clarity and confidence. That means maintaining a long-term perspective, making informed decisions, and staying grounded in a disciplined approach—especially when the environment feels uncertain.

We look forward to working with you throughout the year ahead.

Warm regards,

Shannon B. Budnick, CTFA, CFP®
Director of Wealth Management & Trust

We provide the information in this newsletter for general guidance only. It does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, investment, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.

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